Independent · Amsterdam · Est. 2025
Independent equity research.Eight dimensions. Behavioural signal.
We assess quality across eight dimensions, measure how the market perceives it, and rate the gap. The framework is grounded in four decades of financial research; behavioural signal — 13F filings, insider trades, Congressional disclosures — drives what we look at next.
Illustrative — live ratings on the platform
NVDA · NEUTRALCurrent Focus
Where structure, capital, and innovation converge.
Concentration over breadth. We cover sectors where structural re-pricing, government capital, and technology shifts are reshaping returns at depth. The list evolves with the evidence.
Defense
LiveDefense procurement re-pricing, attritable hardware, software-defined warfare.
Energy
LiveNuclear baseload, fuel-cycle tightness, grid build-out for the AI era.
AI
LiveCompute chokepoints, inference economics, the path to durable moats.
Biotech
LiveGLP-1 economics, gene editing scaling, AI-bio data flywheels.
Fintech
LivePayment rails durability, stablecoin disintermediation, neobank unit economics.
SpaceTech
LiveLaunch cost inversion, lunar economy formation, direct-to-cell connectivity.
Focus list as of May 2026. New areas are added when the evidence is sufficient; areas are dropped when the thesis no longer holds.
The Framework
Eight dimensions. One descriptive rating.
Each dimension is scored 1–5 against a specific question. Score thresholds map to a descriptive rating ladder — not a buy/sell instruction. Valuation is a hard gate; a great business at the wrong price earns NEUTRAL, not ATTRACTIVE.
Business Model
Mechanism of competitive advantage — switching costs, network effects, capital intensity. We require ROIC above WACC sustained for years, with a mechanistic explanation.
Management & Alignment
Capital allocation track record, insider ownership, language patterns in filings. Tetlock and Loughran-McDonald inform the semantic read; specifics inform the rating.
Client Quality
Retention, concentration, switching costs. Revenue quality drives earnings predictability — DCFs systematically undervalue this and we adjust.
Organic Growth
Strip acquisitions, FX, and non-recurring items. What remains is the honest growth rate. Sloan-accruals reasoning applies; M&A masking is named.
Earnings Quality
Gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings, accruals as a fraction of assets, structural-vs-anomalous adjustment patterns.
Balance Sheet
Net debt trajectory, interest coverage, debt maturity, capacity to self-fund growth without continuous capital-market access.
Structural Risk
Disruption, regulation, secular shifts. We score probability × severity on a multi-year horizon, not just the current data.
Valuation
Triangulation of EPV, DCF, and peer multiples. Range, not midpoint. Hard gate — a great business at the wrong price is NEUTRAL, not ATTRACTIVE.
The Rating Ladder
Descriptive, not directional. The same information the platform serves on every company page.
The Perception Gap
Two scores. The gap between them is the signal.
Actual quality from the 8-dimension assessment. Perceived quality derived from analyst consensus, valuation multiples, and crowd sentiment. The gap — and its direction — is what we research, monitor, and publish.
Negative gap → warning
The market is pricing the company as higher-quality than the 8-dim assessment justifies. The premium is built on narrative, not fundamentals. CAUTIOUS or AVOID until the gap closes — by price or by fundamentals confirming.
Positive gap → opportunity, conditionally
The market underestimates underlying quality. ATTRACTIVE if valuation is also acceptable. A positive quality gap on an expensive stock is NEUTRAL — quality alone does not justify a favourable rating.
Every gap is logged
We measure how each gap behaves over 30 / 90 / 180 / 365 days against the price. That feedback loop sharpens the methodology and proves us right or wrong in public.
Worked Example
IllustrativePerception Gap
+2.60
Market underestimates fundamentals. Valuation also acceptable — asymmetry identified.
The Prescription
What would change our view — and by how much.
Every analysis ends with a prescription: the specific operational, capital allocation, or structural changes that would materially shift our rating, with a quantified valuation impact range. Not a price target — a falsifiable thesis.
Halt acquisitions for 18 months
Organic growth becomes visible at 6–7% strip-adjusted. Compounder multiple becomes defensible.
+AUD 1.40 to +AUD 2.60 on fair value
Refinance 2026 debt at current rates
WACC reduces ~80 bps. Interest coverage improves to 4.2×.
+AUD 0.70 on fair value floor
Continue current acquisition pace
Organic deterioration stays masked. Market re-rates toward sector median.
−AUD 1.50 to −AUD 2.20 on fair value
Adverse competitive read in Q4
Switching-cost narrative weakens. Structural risk score drops a notch.
−AUD 1.00 on fair value ceiling
Illustrative scenarios adapted from a real published analysis. Full prescriptions per company are members-only.
Membership
One membership. Full access.
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Member
Annual: €950 — saves €190 / year.
Become a Member →Cancel any time. Secure checkout via Mollie.
- ✓Full 8-dimension scorecard on every covered company
- ✓Smart-money trail — 13F, Form 4, Congressional
- ✓Per-company perception-gap history
- ✓Bull / bear cases with explicit price ranges
- ✓Macro signals & sector cockpit, refreshed daily
- ✓All current and future focus areas as we expand
- ✓Cancel any time
Research, not advice. Ratings (ATTRACTIVE / FAVOURABLE / NEUTRAL / CAUTIOUS / AVOID) describe our assessment of quality and valuation — they do not instruct you to buy or sell. See methodology and full disclaimer.